Here is an idea:
It is said that there are 2 ways to spread light:
(1) Be the candle that generates the light or
(2) Be the mirror that reflects it.
Analogy: Both the Sun & the moon emit light. Sun generates light; The moon reflects light.
Putting this into practice with regards to Consulting Services, the end goal would be that I have to provide solutions to clients. I could do it either by knowing it all myself or by networking / employing / collaborating with other consultants on a partnership / referral basis. While each consultant has core competencies and specialties, lets be honest, one can not know everything about everything in the business world. And if one does, I doubt how rich that person's social and personal life is :) And how good his team skills are. And how common it is to find such a person. Probability: very low.
Just thinking aloud here. What I mean is that as I work towards getting my Start-up going, I do not have to fear that I do not know everything about Consulting yet (I have not even graduated from my MBA yet :). As long as I am able to put together a team of capable people and get the work done on time and under budget, that is all that should matter :). I do have more than 12 years of experience in the field of Healthcare and I am sure that I can pull it off. Just a matter of time. Will be able to develop the right networks and expertise soon.
- Gerry.
This blog documents my MBA student life at Ryerson University, Canada (2010-2012). It was an attempt to demystify the MBA experience, help understand MBA topics & encourage MBA wannabes. I have a Pre-MBA blog about B-School application process (and a few other blogs) as well. I used to blog actively in the past and interact with readers regularly, but life got very busy after my MBA. Good luck. Take care. Cheers! Gerry.
Monday, January 2, 2012
Busting the myth: MBAs are NOT know it alls !!! Or rather, not all MBAs are know it alls !
(P.S: The statements here are general. Do not apply to all students. Of course, there are students at both ends of the spectrum. Extremely good ones and some perhaps not. I just wanted to smash the myth that every MBA knows everything - if such a myth does exist at all)
* Prior to starting my Business School, I was under the impression that everyone who has an MBA must be an expert in the field of business and a Guru who can solve all problems. Not true.
* Prior to starting my Medical School, I had imagined that every doctor is able to cure all diseases. Not true.
Just wanted to put it out there! It is not right to expect every MBA graduate to know everything about Business Management. Of course, the marking system is strict. Of course all business schools do their best to ensure that only the well qualified students are gained entry into schools and exit out of schools as graduates after learning the necessary info. But does that ensure knowledge? Unfortunately not.
The MBA program is extremely intense. It is one assignment after another and one test after another, one party after another, one seminar after another, one lecture after another crammed into a series of 3 month terms x times the number of terms a school has. In between the terms are holidays where students head to holiday destinations to relax. Do they really get the time to absorb everything about Business Management? No. Not all the topics are covered in class. A class room is a place where the learnt knowledge is discussed. There is no actual spoon feeding type teaching.
I guess a lot of students learn while on the job - hoping that they get good employers. A lot of it is self learning and teaching. One has to have an active interest in learning and go after it doggedly. And even after one is employed, perhaps he or she develops a specialization in one particular field. I do not think that he / she would know everything.
Will complete soon...
- Gerry.
* Prior to starting my Business School, I was under the impression that everyone who has an MBA must be an expert in the field of business and a Guru who can solve all problems. Not true.
* Prior to starting my Medical School, I had imagined that every doctor is able to cure all diseases. Not true.
Just wanted to put it out there! It is not right to expect every MBA graduate to know everything about Business Management. Of course, the marking system is strict. Of course all business schools do their best to ensure that only the well qualified students are gained entry into schools and exit out of schools as graduates after learning the necessary info. But does that ensure knowledge? Unfortunately not.
The MBA program is extremely intense. It is one assignment after another and one test after another, one party after another, one seminar after another, one lecture after another crammed into a series of 3 month terms x times the number of terms a school has. In between the terms are holidays where students head to holiday destinations to relax. Do they really get the time to absorb everything about Business Management? No. Not all the topics are covered in class. A class room is a place where the learnt knowledge is discussed. There is no actual spoon feeding type teaching.
I guess a lot of students learn while on the job - hoping that they get good employers. A lot of it is self learning and teaching. One has to have an active interest in learning and go after it doggedly. And even after one is employed, perhaps he or she develops a specialization in one particular field. I do not think that he / she would know everything.
Will complete soon...
- Gerry.
The Basics Of Business Forecasting
From: http://goo.gl/gYLzs
It is not unusual to hear a company's management speak about forecasts: "Our sales did not meet the forecasted numbers," or "we feel confident in the forecasted economic growth and expect to exceed our targets." In the end, all financial forecasts, whether about the specifics of a business, like sales growth, or predictions about the economy as a whole, are informed guesses. In this article, we'll look at some of the methods behind financial forecasts, as well as the actual process and some of the risks that crop up when we seek to predict the future.
Financial Forecasting Methods
There are a number of different methods by which a business forecast can be made. All the methods fall into one of two overarching approaches: qualitative and quantitative.
Qualitative Models
Qualitative models have generally been successful with short-term predictions, where the scope of the forecast is limited. Qualitative forecasts can be thought of as expert-driven, in that they depend on market mavens or the market as a whole to weigh in with an informed consensus. Qualitative models can be useful in predicting the short-term success of companies, products and services, but meets limitations due to its reliance on opinion over measurable data. Qualitative models include:
Quantitative models discount the expert factor and try to take the human element out of the analysis. These approaches are concerned solely with data and avoid the fickleness of the people underlying the numbers. They also try to predict where variables like sales, gross domestic product, housing prices and so on, will be in the long-term, measured in months or years. Quantitative models include:
There is a lot of variation on a practical level when it comes to business forecasting. However, on a conceptual level, all forecasts follow the same process.
1. A problem or data point is chosen. This can be something like "will people buy a high-end coffee maker?" or "what will our sales be in March next year?"
2. Theoretical variables and an ideal data set are chosen. This is where the forecaster identifies the relevant variables that need to be considered and decides how to collect the data.
3. Assumption time. To cut down the time and data needed to make a forecast, the forecaster makes some explicit assumptions to simplify the process.
4. A model is chosen. The forecaster picks the model that fits the data set, selected variables and assumptions.
5. Analysis. Using the model, the data is analyzed and a forecast made from the analysis.
6. Verification. The forecaster compares the forecast to what actually happens to tweak the process, identify problems or in the rare case of an absolutely accurate forecast, pat himself on the back.
Problems With Forecasting
Business forecasting is very useful for businesses, as it allows them to plan production, financing and so on. However, there are three problems with relying on forecasts:
1. The data is always going to be old. Historical data is all we have to go on and there is no guarantee that the conditions in the past will persist into the future.
2. It is impossible to factor in unique or unexpected events, or externalities. Assumptions are dangerous, such as the assumptions that banks were properly screening borrows prior to the subprime meltdown, and black swan events have become more common as our dependence on forecasts has grown.
3. Forecasts can't integrate their own impact. By having forecasts, accurate or inaccurate, the actions of businesses are influenced by a factor that can't be included as a variable. This is a conceptual knot. In a worst case scenario, management becomes a slave to historical data and trends rather than worrying about what the business is doing now.
The Bottom Line
Forecasting can be a dangerous art, because the forecasts become a focus for companies and governments, mentally limiting their range of actions, by presenting the short to long-term future as already being determined. Moreover, forecasts can easily breakdown due to random elements that can't be incorporated into a model, or they can be just plain wrong from the beginning. The negatives aside, business forecasting isn't going anywhere. Used properly, forecasting allows businesses to plan ahead of their needs, raising their chances of keeping healthy through all markets. That's one function of business forecasting that all investors can appreciate.
It is not unusual to hear a company's management speak about forecasts: "Our sales did not meet the forecasted numbers," or "we feel confident in the forecasted economic growth and expect to exceed our targets." In the end, all financial forecasts, whether about the specifics of a business, like sales growth, or predictions about the economy as a whole, are informed guesses. In this article, we'll look at some of the methods behind financial forecasts, as well as the actual process and some of the risks that crop up when we seek to predict the future.
Financial Forecasting Methods
There are a number of different methods by which a business forecast can be made. All the methods fall into one of two overarching approaches: qualitative and quantitative.
Qualitative Models
Qualitative models have generally been successful with short-term predictions, where the scope of the forecast is limited. Qualitative forecasts can be thought of as expert-driven, in that they depend on market mavens or the market as a whole to weigh in with an informed consensus. Qualitative models can be useful in predicting the short-term success of companies, products and services, but meets limitations due to its reliance on opinion over measurable data. Qualitative models include:
- Market Research: Polling a large number of people on a specific product or service to predict how many people will buy or use it once launched.
- Delphi Method: Asking field experts for general opinions and then compiling them into a forecast.
Quantitative models discount the expert factor and try to take the human element out of the analysis. These approaches are concerned solely with data and avoid the fickleness of the people underlying the numbers. They also try to predict where variables like sales, gross domestic product, housing prices and so on, will be in the long-term, measured in months or years. Quantitative models include:
- The Indicator Approach: The indicator approach depends on the relationship between certain indicators, for example GDP and unemployment rates, remaining relatively unchanged over time. By following the relationships and then following indicators that are leading, you can estimate the performance of the lagging indicators, by using the leading indicator data.
- Econometric Modeling: This is a more mathematically rigorous version of the indicator approach. Instead of assuming that relationships stay the same, econometric modeling tests the internal consistency of data sets over time and the significance or strength of the relationship between data sets. Econometric modeling is sometimes used to create custom indicators that can be used for a more accurate indicator approach. However, the econometric models are more often used in academic fields to evaluate economic policies.
- Time Series Methods: This refers to a collection of different methodologies that use past data to predict future events. The difference between the time series methodologies is usually in fine details, like giving more recent data more weight or discounting certain outlier points. By tracking what happened in the past, the forecaster hopes to be able to give a better than average prediction about the future. This is the most common type of business forecasting, because it is cheap and really no better or worse than other methods.
There is a lot of variation on a practical level when it comes to business forecasting. However, on a conceptual level, all forecasts follow the same process.
1. A problem or data point is chosen. This can be something like "will people buy a high-end coffee maker?" or "what will our sales be in March next year?"
2. Theoretical variables and an ideal data set are chosen. This is where the forecaster identifies the relevant variables that need to be considered and decides how to collect the data.
3. Assumption time. To cut down the time and data needed to make a forecast, the forecaster makes some explicit assumptions to simplify the process.
4. A model is chosen. The forecaster picks the model that fits the data set, selected variables and assumptions.
5. Analysis. Using the model, the data is analyzed and a forecast made from the analysis.
6. Verification. The forecaster compares the forecast to what actually happens to tweak the process, identify problems or in the rare case of an absolutely accurate forecast, pat himself on the back.
Problems With Forecasting
Business forecasting is very useful for businesses, as it allows them to plan production, financing and so on. However, there are three problems with relying on forecasts:
1. The data is always going to be old. Historical data is all we have to go on and there is no guarantee that the conditions in the past will persist into the future.
2. It is impossible to factor in unique or unexpected events, or externalities. Assumptions are dangerous, such as the assumptions that banks were properly screening borrows prior to the subprime meltdown, and black swan events have become more common as our dependence on forecasts has grown.
3. Forecasts can't integrate their own impact. By having forecasts, accurate or inaccurate, the actions of businesses are influenced by a factor that can't be included as a variable. This is a conceptual knot. In a worst case scenario, management becomes a slave to historical data and trends rather than worrying about what the business is doing now.
The Bottom Line
Forecasting can be a dangerous art, because the forecasts become a focus for companies and governments, mentally limiting their range of actions, by presenting the short to long-term future as already being determined. Moreover, forecasts can easily breakdown due to random elements that can't be incorporated into a model, or they can be just plain wrong from the beginning. The negatives aside, business forecasting isn't going anywhere. Used properly, forecasting allows businesses to plan ahead of their needs, raising their chances of keeping healthy through all markets. That's one function of business forecasting that all investors can appreciate.
How to deal with the knowledge aware consumers?
In the past, consumers did not have ready access to information. They were dependent on their small networks. But now, thanks to internet and telecommunications, information is easily accessible to people. How can businesses profit from this knowledge aware consumers and how do you deal with them? THis is the question on my mind this morning. Hope to find some answers and post them here.
- Gerry.
- Gerry.
Expatriate Arabic in the Middle East
#Expat-Arabic: There are many forms of Arabic and Expatriate Arabic is very unique :) There are true/false & good/bad sides to both the concerned parties Locals/expats. There is as much love as there is frustration among both parties. However, it is because of the collaboration that both sides have prospered. Very interesting dynamics.
(P.S: I disagree with some of the lyrics in the song below - for example, the "Galb Aswad" part description of the sponsors).
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