Sunday, March 18, 2012

Stories of the Financial Crises of 1866, 1890, 1929, 1985, 1987, 1998, 2000 & 2008 - Simple & Brief explanations.

The Global Recession of 2008 - Mortgage Meltdown Crisis (or Subprime Crisis).






Info below is from the link: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6958091.stm

THE DOT.COM CRASH (2000)

During the late 1990s, stock markets became beguiled by the rise of internet companies such as Amazon and AOL, which seemed to be ushering in a new era for the economy.

Steve Case, head of AOL, as merger with Time Warner is announced
When AOL's Steve Case took over Time Warner, the dot.com boom peaked
Their shares soared when they listed on the Nasdaq stock market, despite that fact that few of the firms actually made a profit.

The boom peaked when internet service provider AOL bought traditional media company Time Warner for nearly $200bn in January 2000.

But in March 2000, the bubble burst, and the technology-weighted Nasdaq index fell by 78% by October 2002.

The crash had wider repercussions, with business investment falling and the US economy slowing in the following year, a process exacerbated by the 9/11 attacks, which led to the temporary closure of the financial markets.

But the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, cut interest rates throughout 2001, gradually lowering rates from 6.25% to 1% to stimulate economic growth.

LONG-TERM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, 1998
The collapse of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Market (LTCM) occurred during the final stage of the world financial crisis that began in Asia in 1997 and spread to Russia and Brazil in 1998.

LTCM was a hedge fund set up by Nobel Prize winners Myron Scholes and Robert Merton to trade bonds. The professors believed that in the long run, the interest rates on different government bonds would converge, and the hedge fund traded on the small differences in the rates.

John Merryweather, head of LTCM
John Meriwether, a Wall Street trader, headed LTCM
But when Russia defaulted on its government bonds in August 1998, investors fled from other government paper to the safe haven of US Treasury bonds, and interest rate differences between bonds increased sharply.

LTCM, which had borrowed a lot of money from other companies, stood to lose billions of dollars - and in order to liquidate its positions it would have to sell Treasury bonds, plunging the US credit markets into turmoil and forcing up interest rates.

So the Fed decided that a rescue was needed. It called together the leading US banks, many of whom had invested in LTCM, and persuaded them to put in $3.65bn to save the firm from imminent collapse.

The Fed itself made an emergency rate cut in October 1998 and markets soon returned to stability. LTCM itself was liquidated in 2000.

THE CRASH OF 1987

US stock markets suffered their largest peacetime one-day fall yet on 19 October 1987, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average index of shares in leading US companies dropped 22% and European and Japanese markets followed suit.

New York Stock Exchange
Program trading on the New York stock market worsened the crisis
The losses were triggered by the widespread belief that insider trading and company takeovers on borrowed money were dominating the markets, while the US economy was entering into an economic slowdown.

There were also worries about the value of the US dollar, which had been declining on international markets.

These fears grew when Germany raised a key interest rate, boosting the value of its currency.

Newly-introduced computerised trading systems exacerbated the stock market declines, as sell orders were executed automatically.

Concerns that major banks might go bust led the Fed and other major central banks to lower interest rates sharply.  "Circuit-breakers" were also introduced to limit program trading and allow the authorities to suspend all trades for short periods.

The crash seemed to have little direct economic effect and stock markets soon recovered. But the lower interest rates, especially in the UK, may have contributed to the housing market bubble of 1988-89 and to the pressures on the pound sterling which led to the devaluation of 1992.

The crash also showed that global stock markets were now closely linked, and changes in economic policy in one country could affect markets around the world. Laws on insider trading were also tightened up in the US and UK.

US SAVINGS AND LOAN SCANDAL, 1985

US Savings and Loans institutions were local banks which made home loans and took deposits from retail investors, similar to building societies in the UK.

Under financial deregulation in the 1980s, they were allowed to engage in more complex, and often unwise, financial transactions, competing with the big commercial banks.

By 1985, many of these institutions were all but bankrupt, and a run began on S&L institutions in Ohio and Maryland.

The US government insured many of the individual deposits in the S&Ls, and therefore had a big financial liability when they collapsed.

It set up the Resolution Trust Company to take over and sell any S&L assets that it could, including repossessed homes, taking over the bankrupt institutions.
The cost of the bail-out eventually totalled about $150bn.

However, the crisis probably strengthened the bigger banks by weeding out their weaker rivals, and laid the groundwork for the wave of mergers and consolidations in the retail banking sector in the 1990s.

THE CRASH OF 1929

The Wall Street crash of 1929, "Black Thursday," was an event that sent the US and indeed the global economy into a tailspin, contributing to the Great Depression of the 1930s.

President Franklin Roosevelt led the US during the Great Depression
Franklin Roosevelt became US President after the crash
After a huge speculative rise in the late 1920s, based partly on the rise of new industries such as radio broadcasting and carmaking, shares fell by 13% on Thursday, 24 October.

Despite efforts by the stock market authorities to stabilise the market, stocks fell by another 11% the following Tuesday, 29 October.

By the time the market had reached bottom in 1932, 90% had been wiped off the value of shares. It took 25 years before the Dow Jones industrial average recovered to its 1929 level.

The effect on the real economy was severe, as widespread share ownership meant that the losses were felt by many middle-class consumers.

They cut their purchases of big consumer goods such as cars and homes, while businesses postponed investment and closed factories.
By 1932, the US economy had declined by half, and one-third of the workforce was unemployed.

The whole US financial system also went into meltdown, with a shutdown of the entire banking system in March 1933 by the time the new President, Franklin Roosevelt took office and launched the New Deal.

Many economists on both left and right have criticised the response of the authorities as inadequate.
The US central bank actually raised interest rates to protect the value of the dollar and preserve the gold standard, while the US government raised tariffs and ran a budget surplus.

New Deal measures alleviated some of the worst problems of the Depression, but the US economy did not fully recover until World War II, when massive military spending eliminated unemployment and boosted growth.

The New Deal also introduced extensive regulation of financial markets and the banking system through the creation of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and the separation of commercial and retail banking through the Glass-Steagall Act.

OVEREND & GURNEY, 1866; BARINGS, 1890

The failure of a key London bank in 1866 led to a key change in the role of central banks in managing financial crises.

The Bank of England was at the centre of the world financial system
The Bank of England was at the centre of the world financial system
Overend and Gurney was a discount bank which provided money for commercial and retail banks in London, the world's financial centre. When it declared bankruptcy in May 1866, many smaller banks were unable to get funds and went under, even though they were otherwise solvent.

As a result, reformers like Walter Bagehot advocated a new role for the Bank of England as the "lender of last resort" to provide liquidity (cash) to the financial system during crises, in order to prevent a failure of one bank spilling over and affect all the others ("systemic failure").

The new doctrine was implemented in the Barings Crisis in 1890, when losses by a leading UK bank, Barings, made on its investments in Argentina, were covered by the Bank of England to prevent a systemic collapse of UK banking.

Secret negotiations by the Bank and London financiers led to the creation of an £18m rescue fund in November 1890, before the extent of Barings' losses became publicly known.
The bankers also organised a committee to renegotiate the outstanding debts owed by Argentina, but a banking crisis engulfed the country and foreign lending to Argentina dried up for a decade.

Relationship Between Money, Power, Politics & People. (Work in progress - incomplete blog)

Just curious about the relationships and the dynamics between Money, Power & Politics. Will try to do some research soon and post some info.

Some immediate thoughts of mine:
  • Leverage of Ideas (with mass Acceptance) ---> Social Power.
  • Leverage of Money ---> Financial Power.
  • Leverage of Social power & Financial power ---> Political power.
  • Leverage of Unity, participation & the strength of numbers ---> People power.
 - Gerry Som.
Profile @ www.gerrysom.com

This is a sentence that I had heard during an MBA class, quoted by our amazing Professor:
"Power comes from dependence. If you depend on somebody, they hold power over you".

Here are some interesting articles:

Here is an interesting paragraph from a link above:

"Have you ever been in a meeting and said something that almost nobody noticed, yet a few minutes later, someone else said exactly the same thing and everyone in the group paid attention, perhaps even praised the “brilliant” idea she/he had? In thinking about this, you may have thought that the person who repeated your idea had a great deal of leverage (or power) in the group".

This blog is incomplete. I am still working on it. But the idea behind this blog is so exciting, that I am not ashamed to put out a half-baked cake (made of thoughts) for display this instance, LOL.

- Gerry Som.
Blogger @ www.gerry.in

History of of Significant Financial Crises of the World & The Lessons Learnt From the Financial Crises of the Past.



From the link: http://www.xtimeline.com/timeline/History-of-financial-crisis-1
  • A Financial Crisis is a situation when money demand quickly rises relative to money supply.
  • Until a few decades ago, a financial crisis was equivalent to a banking crisis.
  • Today it may also take the form of a currency crisis.
  • Many economists have come up with theories on how a financial crisis develops and how it could be prevented.
  • There is, however, no consensus and financial crises are still a regular phenomenon.
  • A stock market crash is an example of a financial crisis.
From the link: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6958091.stm

What happened in previous financial crises, and what are the lessons for today? There have been a growing number of financial crises in the world, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The key lessons (or at least some of them) of previous major financial crises are:
  • Globalisation has increased the frequency and spread of financial crises, but not necessarily their severity. (Globalisation is a double edged sword - it can help, but it can hurt too)
  • Early intervention by central banks is more effective in limiting their spread than later moves. (Prevention of a Financial crisis is better than cure. But the problem is - until just before the bubble bursts, it is sooo much fun!!! It looks like win-win for all and everyone seems to believe to be in a state of perpetual prosperity. People are just unwilling / unable to see a crash coming or a bubble bursting. Most likely, this shall happen at least once in every generation, when the memory has faded / not been formed and new blood is willing to experiment and take high risks / or perhaps higher risks than the previous generation / or perhaps they think that they are much smarter than the older generation, LOL. Or perhaps not. Hats off to the craziness / frenzy of the people in the 1920s (1921 to early 1929) ---> they mush be the wackiest of all times, LOL :) Kidding. They were nice people, just caught up in the wave and enthusiasm, while being unaware of the insider tradings and the manipulation of the financial system by the big players / traders in the market - some of whom safely cashed out during the peak and exited / parachuted safely at the right time - liquid, before the crash).
  • It is difficult to tell at the time whether a financial crisis will have broader economic consequences. (No one can predict the future 100% accurately. No one can accurately pinpoint / time the crash and the effects. This is an area that needs more research. Financial ratios and analysis can help. With time, perhaps, we can do a better job of predicting crises. But then again, there is conflict of interest. Why would anyone make it public? Coz there is huge money to be made while the bubble is building up and there is huge money to be made when the bubble pops! People who can predict this rather make money out of it, rather then tell the world about it and lower their chances of profiting from the process. Why risk a good thing - good for the smart financial investors, that is. Human beings are extremely intelligent. There are people steps ahead of others in terms of financial expertise, just like there are people way behind others.)
  • Regulators often cannot keep up with the pace of financial innovation that may trigger a crisis. (The people in the private financial industry are EXTREMELY smart. Concepts like Margin Call, CDOs were smart innovations. It looks simple in retrospect, but it was smart financial engineering. Just like people build new inventions, there are brilliant inventors in the financial world too. The governments however, perhaps does not have these smart innovators. Perhaps the government jobs are not attractive enough. Perhaps they do not pay as much. Perhaps there are no million dollar bonuses in the government to reward financial innovation or financial forensics. Perhaps there are no "GreenPeace or Robinhood - not for profit NGOs to help - I know, eh? 'Not for profit Financial experts' seems like an oxymoron, LOL. Duh!" Financial Smarts on the right side of the law to track that something is wrong. The point however, is that these were not illegal. These were legal financial innovations. However, their side effects were long term, while the short term had this amazing win-win for all scenario!)
(P.S: The sentences in Blue above were written by me, and are not from the original article by BBC. - Gerry)

Another useful online resource for International Financial Crises: http://www.internationaleconomics.net/crisis.html
(The webpage above is more general in nature and collects research on the phenomenon of financial crises).

Since the 1980s, the march of GLOBALISATION and concomitant increases in flows of capital and trade have led to high volatility in international financial markets. Some of these have erupted into crises, in the form of runs on banks - both national and multinational - as well as attacks on currencies. Resultant effects have included the significant increase in contagion and the collapse of both venerable private banks as well as national institutions. Some research on episodes of currency crises: here

Some info covered on the webpage above:
As always, our Wiki friend is an extremely useful source. Check out the link: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis#History

A noted survey of financial crises is This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Reinhart & Rogoff 2009), by economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, who are regarded as among the foremost historians of financial crises. In this survey, they trace the history of financial crisis back to sovereign defaults – default on public debt, – which were the form of crisis prior to the 18th century and continue, then and now causing private bank failures; crises since the 18th century feature both public debt default and private debt default. Reinhart and Rogoff also class debasement of currency and hyperinflation as being forms of financial crisis, broadly speaking, because they lead to unilateral reduction (repudiation) of debt.

Before 17th century:
Reinhart and Rogoff trace inflation (to reduce debt) to Dionysius of Syracuse, of the 4th century BCE, and begin their "eight centuries" in 1258; debasement of currency also occurred under the Roman empire and Byzantine empire.
Among the earliest crises Reinhart and Rogoff study is the 1340 default of England, due to setbacks in its war with France (the Hundred Years' War; see details). Further early sovereign defaults include seven defaults by imperial Spain, four under Philip II, three under his successors.

17th century:


  • 1637: Bursting of tulip mania* in the Netherlands – while tulip mania is popularly reported as an example of a financial crisis, and was a speculative bubble, modern scholarship holds that its broader economic impact was limited to negligible, and that it did not precipitate a financial crisis.
18th century:
19th century:

20th century:


21st century:



Capitalism has its BENEFITS & PERILS. Globalisation makes it an Infectious / Highly Contagious
& by definition, a world-wide phenomenon!

Ted Rogers School of Management (Team of 4 MBA students) finished 2nd in the International Case Competition (HEC Sustainability Challenge 2012 Case Competition) at Montreal, Quebec, Canada on 17th March, 2012.

The Case Competition Team from the Ted Rogers School of Management, Ryerson University were placed 2nd in the International Case Competition in Montreal, Quebec. This included a team of 4 final year MBA students of TRSM.

Congratulations to the team from our Business School! We are so proud of you!


About HEC Sustainability Challenge 2012 – Case Competition:
The third HEC Sustainability Challenge was hosted on Saturday, March 17, 2012 - A Case Competition on Business and Sustainability. The event was organized in association with McGill University and Concordia University.

The event was meant to increase the sustainability literacy of business students and develop a network of peers. To demonstrate the relevance of addressing CSR issues in the management of successful enterprises. The organizers were students from HEC Montreal MBA program, a one-year intensive MBA.

The competition took place as part of the Montreal Sustainability Weekend held on March 17-18, 2012 and was co-organized with Concordia University and McGill University. Related event included the ‘Business Beyond Tomorrow’ conference.

Teams:
Teams are to consist of four MBA students currently enrolled in a Full-time or Part-time program. One team per business school is allowed.

Location:
HEC Montreal
Côte-Sainte-Catherine Building
3000 Côte-Sainte-Catherine Road
Montréal, Quebec
Canada H3T 2A7


Event held:
Saturday, March 17th 2012. All day

Awards:
Winning team - a prize of 4,000$
Second team - 2,000$ prize
Third team - 1,000$ prize.


Registration:
Registration fee - CAD$ 200 per team. Meals and refreshments provided on the day of the competition. Registration deadline was February 24, 2011, 11.59PM.

"Don't Blame the Tool (Corporate Finance); Blame the Usage (Re-Engineering & Marketing) of the Tool. Better Yet, Don't Blame the Usage of the Tool Alone; Blame the Motive (Greed & Short Term Benefits - "Desire To Make Quick Bucks") Behind the Usage of the Tool. Don't Blame Motive alone; Blame the Lack of Foresight / Long term Planning / Disregard For Future Consequences"

After having read a bit about the 1929 Depression and about the 2008 Financial Meltdown, here are some quick & random thoughts:

  • Corporate Finance is a collection of a great set of tools.
  • Knowledge of Corporate Finance (money management) is extremely powerful ---> Money and Power are natural bedmates and partners. Money can bring power. And power can help generate money.
  • Corporate Finance helps us understand money management and implement it.
  • Corporate Finance is a must for running businesses.
  • Do not blame Corporate Finance for all the problems of the world.
  • Do not blame Corporations for all the problems of the world. Corporations are not alien species - corporations are composed of people. Of human beings. Of you and me.
  • Remember, it was the knowledge of Finance that helped rake in the profits and helped human beings prosper over centuries.
  • The problem was when Marketing kicked in, to be combined with Corporate Finance.
  • The problem was when Politics kicked in, to be combined with Corporate Finance and when there were Regulations or lack of them (De-Regulation / Non-Regulation).
  • The problem was when greed and the desire for greater profits kicked in, to be combined with Corporate Finance. In other words, the DESIRE (Wants, not Needs) ---> To maximize capacity, To maximize efficiency, To increase profits, To increase shareholder returns, To increase stock prices, To increase employee incentives & bonuses, To  increase incentives for Managers (C-level executives), To deliver even more profits to the Owners of the company (large investors, shareholders, founders / family owners and so on) & To keep those with high stakes - Ownership / Management / Employee stakes happy.  
  • Now, here, greed was not necessarily a bad thing. Corporate Finance was not evil. The desire was simply to increase value and returns for everyone. No one was deliberately trying to mess up the whole system. Why would anyone want to kill a good thing by having it blow up? People would loved to have the good times to go on for ever. Why would anyone want to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs? The problem was not greed itself - Greed can be a good thing if utilized in a positive manner.
  • The problem was how, while having this emotion of greed, there was disregard for the consequences and the fall outs. The problem was how the set of tools called Corporate Finance was used, by bringing Re-Engineering and Marketing into play. How stocks were Marketed / pushed to the common man. How Casino culture became more important than productivity culture - manufacture / delivery of goods, services and information.
These were just quick thoughts blogged by me in 10 minutes, from what knowledge I have right now. This is not comprehensive. But as I do get closer and closer to the finish line of the MBA, I think my blogs are more closer to truth than to theory or fantasy :)

Cheers!
Gerry.

I shall end this blog by quoting myself (from my title of this blog I just wrote) here below (how cool is that; when you get to quote yourself, ha ha :)

"Don't Blame the Tool (Corporate Finance); Blame the Usage (Re-Engineering & Marketing) of the Tool. Better Yet, Don't Blame the Usage of the Tool Alone; Blame the Motive (Greed & Short Term Benefits - "Desire To Make Quick Bucks") Behind the Usage of the Tool. Don't Blame Motive alone; Blame the Lack of Foresight  / Long term Planning / Disregard For Future Consequences...." - Gerry Som. 18th March, 2012. Toronto, Canada.